5.9

Housing Market Indicator

overall score, actual per Q1 2022

Housing Market Indicator

The Housing Market Indicator of Q1 2022 dropped significantly to 5.9, from 7.3 in Q3 2021. The decrease of the HMI is mainly caused by the massive increase in inflation and negative consumer confidence.

The consumer side of the HMI is under pressure. Confidence among Dutch consumers has deteriorated in the first quarter of 2022. While the coronavirus no longer dominates our daily lives, it has been replaced by the war in Ukraine which now impacts the economy and sentiment among consumers. The consumer confidence indicator stands at -39 in March, down from -30 in February. Consumers are mainly gloomier about the next twelve months. Affordability also continues to decline and contributed to the drop of the HMI.

The sharp increase in inflation had a downward effect on the economic driver of the HMI. Energy currently makes a significant contribution to overall inflation. In March, the consumer price index (CPI) was 9.7 percent higher than in the same month last year. On the other side we observe positive developments; economic growth continues, and the unemployment rate is still very low.

The sustainability score increased, to 6.2 from 5.3 in Q3 2021 which is mainly caused by the decrease of CO2-emissions. Last year the level of CO2-emissions have been very volatile due to effects of the pandemic, especially less traffic and industrial activity caused by the lockdowns.

The score on the housing driver remains high, but it slightly decreased to a score of 8.2, coming from 8.7. Price levels on the owner-occupier market are still rising and the housing market remains tight, which is indicated by low supply-demand ratios.​